Emerging risks

All hazards

Risks spanning across multiple hazard types and across the emergency management system.

Biosecurity

Exotic animal and plant disease outbreaks and pest incursions can have significant economic, community and environmental impacts.

Bushfire and other fires

Bushfire and other fires have potential consequences including loss of life and property, and damage to infrastructure and environment.

Climate change

Risks include more days of extreme heat, harsher fire weather, less rainfall and rising sea levels.

Communications disruption

Communications services are crucial in keeping communities safe, connected and informed before, during and after emergencies.

Cyber security and ICT systems failure

Risks relating to the confidentiality, availability, integrity of information and data and disruption of services.

Energy supply disruption

Reliable energy supplies are critical to many social and economic activities.

Flood

Major flood events have occurred in Victoria every 10 to 20 years, with much of the increasing risk created by human settlement.

Hazardous material incident

Potential risks relate to many places where Victoria’s hazardous materials are manufactured, stored, transported, used and disposed.

Heatwave

Heatwaves are considered to be the ‘silent killer’ of extreme weather events and are the leading cause of weather-related deaths in Australia.

Public health emergency

Risks may relate to the delivery of public health services, with impacts on community health and wellbeing and potential for loss of life.

Supply chain disruption

Geopolitical, environmental, economic, societal and infrastructure-related shocks can expose supply chains to wide ranging consequences.

Terrorism and extremism

Attacks carried out by individuals or non-state groups with ideological, political or religious goals can result in loss of life, severe injury and/or material damage.

Water supply disruption

Risks include collection, storage, treatment, delivery, availability and allocation of water for consumption and environmental, recreation and cultural uses.

Workforce and resourcing

Risks may relate to human resource supply and skills to support emergency management operations.

CSIRO’s Global megatrends impacting the way we live over coming decades (External link) report highlights seven emerging megatrends.

Megatrends are trajectories of change that typically unfold over years or decades and have the potential for substantial and transformative impact.

In its 2022 report, Australia’s national science agency identified the megatrends that have the potential for impact over 20 years to 2042 and the challenges and opportunities these megatrends create.

Adapting to a changing climate - new ways of operating that organisations and communities will need to adapt to in the face of a changing climate
Leaner, cleaner and greener - opportunities pushing us towards a more sustainable horizon and the importance of science, technology and innovation in helping organisations to operate
The escalating health imperative - opportunities provided by preventative health and precision health in supporting better health outcomes for all Australians
Geopolitical shifts - implications of emerging geopolitical risks relating to science, technology, trade, supply chains and defence strategy
Diving into digital - digitisation for organisations and the opportunities enabled by digital and data technologies
Increasingly autonomous - how AI and related science, research and technology capabilities are helping to boost productivity and solve challenges
Unlocking the human dimension - social drivers influencing future consumer, citizen and employee behaviours.

This report provides opportunity for the Victorian emergency management sector to understand and apply the identified challenges and opportunities in sector activities – where possible – to better prepare for future emergency events.

Source: CSIRO

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